In blackjack, the decision whether to hit, stand, or double down is taken based on the combination of a few factors, of which the odds take center stage.
Unlike house edge, which quantifies the casino’s long-term advantage over players, blackjack odds measure the likelihood of having specific gameplay outcomes.
What are the odds of getting a natural 2, defeating the dealer to win even money, busting, or having a tie? In this casino news, we answer these questions and more, as we treat the subject of blackjack odds.
Blackjack Odds: House Edge, Payouts & Win Rates
In most casinos, the odds of winning blackjack at a standard table are about 42% for players and about 49% for the dealer.
Blackjack odds signify how often the game statistically favors you versus the dealer in any situation. They are calculated based on your total hand value, the dealer’s upcard (face-up card), and specific game rules. Therefore, it is vital to learn the basic rules before diving into blackjack odds and probability.
Odds of Key Outcomes in Blackjack
Play online blackjack and test your odds for real money. The blackjack odds chart below summarizes possible outcomes in the classic card game.
| Player Outcome Per Hand | Odds Estimate |
|---|---|
| Winning | 42% |
| Losing | 48% |
| Push (Tie) | 9% |
| Busting | Varies by hand total |
| Natural Blackjack | 4.8% |
Win, Lose, and Push Odds
While focusing on the goal of getting a hand value of 21, a player can win the stake, lose it, or push (and get back the stake). The blackjack winning odds are about 42% for the players and around 49% for the dealer. The remaining 9% is the push odds.
Natural Blackjack Odds and Payouts
The blackjack probability of getting a natural 21 hand (an Ace + a 10-value card) is about 4.8%. The odds remain the same for the dealer, but the chance of you both getting a natural, simultaneously, is 0.23%.
The standard blackjack payout odds for a natural hand are 3:2, meaning a $5 bet will give a return of $7.50. But for 6:5 blackjack tables, the same wager will return only $6. Regular wins pay even money (1:1), meaning $5 returns $10.
When you compare the 3:2 and 6:5 tables, there is a $1.50 difference in the payout amount. So, per blackjack, you lose about 20% of your winnings playing on the table with a 6:5 payout. If you intend to place an extra wager to fill the gap, ensure you know the blackjack side bets odds.
Bust Odds
Bust odds estimate the chance of you going over 21, and they depend on your total hand value. Here is a blackjack odds table for totals 12–17:
| Hand Total | Bust Odds Estimate |
|---|---|
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
To avoid going bust, use our Blackjack Cheat Sheet to apply these odds in real play.
Blackjack House Edge and RTP Effect
House edge and RTP are crucial parameters that also affect the best blackjack odds. Let’s compare how rule changes impact the house edge and your odds.
House Edge by Rule Variation
House edge in blackjack is usually around 1-2%, depending on game rules. However, with the right strategy, you can bring down the house edge below 1% as low as 0.5%. You can learn from our guide to see how strategy can turn blackjack odds in your favor.
Below is a table showing how the blackjack house edge changes based on rules.
| Rules | Change in House Edge |
|---|---|
| Dealer hits on soft 17 instead of standing | +0.21% |
| Double down after split (DAS) allowed | -0.13% |
| Re-splitting Aces is not allowed | +0.07% |
| No surrender option | +0.08% |
| Late surrender available | -0.08% |
| Naturals pay 6:5 instead of 3:2 | +1.3% |
| More decks (e.g., 8) | +0.5% |
Blackjack RTP by Deck Counts
RTP is the opposite of house edge, as it represents how much a player can expect back in the long run. For example, if the house edge is 1%, then the RTP will be 99%. However, it’s not a metric of short-term results but of long-term performance.
RTP rate also varies based on deck count. Single-deck blackjack offers about 99.8% RTP, which drops to approximately 99.5% in eight-deck games. An increase in deck count and the house edge results in a decrease in the return-to-player.
| Number of Decks | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.17% |
| 2 | 0.46% |
| 4 | 0.60% |
| 6 | 0.64% |
| 8 | 0.66% |
Blackjack By the Numbers: Wrapping It Up
Understanding blackjack odds is essential as they shape your expected results over time. Each percentage point, from win odds and bust odds to house edge and RTP, informs your decisions at every step of the game. Master them and visit Slots Paradise Casino to play blackjack live.
FAQs
What are blackjack odds?
Blackjack odds represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in each hand, e.g., winning, losing, or pushing.
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
With the basic strategy, players’ odds of winning are about 42%.
What are the odds of winning a blackjack hand?
Approximately 42% with optimal play.
Which has better odds, blackjack or baccarat?
Blackjack offers better odds, with a house edge below 1% when using proper strategy, compared to baccarat’s 1.06% on banker bets.
Which blackjack has the best odds?
Single-deck blackjack with 3:2 payouts and dealer standing on soft 17 has the best odds, with a house edge below 0.5%.
If you play blackjack perfectly, what are the odds?
Perfect play reduces the house edge to about 0.5%, giving you a win rate of roughly 42% per hand.
Does video blackjack have the same odds?
Not always, because the presence of RNG software modifies the rules in some video blackjack games.
How to calculate blackjack odds?
The calculation uses probability models or simulation data that factor in deck composition, player decisions, and payout rules.
Which has better odds, roulette or blackjack?
Blackjack has better odds (below 1%), compared to European roulette’s 2.7% or American’s 5.26%.
What does 3 to 2 odds mean in blackjack?
3 to 2 odds mean a $100 bet on a natural blackjack returns a total of $150.