Video poker games share similar gameplay mechanics, but their winning odds vary from one variant to another. Video poker odds are affected by each game’s RTP and paytables, as well as your chosen playing strategy. Therefore, before you start playing, it is beneficial to learn what influences your expected returns over time.
In this casino guide, we break down the factors that shape the best video poker game odds, so you can pick the best game option and set the right expectations.
Video Poker Odds and How To Get the Best of Them
Video poker odds represent the probability of having winning hands. And these odds are affected by rules, paytables, RTP, strategy, and variance.
- Paytable and variant rules set the baseline RTP (long-term Return-to-Player).
- Optimal Strategy: The right hold or discard decision can help you secure a winning hand. This skill factor is what distinguishes video poker from slot games.
- Variance: Determines how much short-term results can fluctuate, even in games with high RTP.
So, with the right paytable/variant and perfect decisions, you can clinch a video poker RTP that exceeds 99% or even crosses 100% (rare).
The table below highlights the odds of winning hands in video poker:
| Hand Rank | Odds (Estimated % or Ratio) |
|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 0.00015% or 1 in 649,740 |
| Straight Flush | 0.00138% or 1 in 72,193 |
| Four of a Kind | 0.02401% or 1 in 4,165 |
| Full House | 0.14406% or 1 in 694 |
| Flush | 0.19654% or 1 in 509 |
| Straight | 0.39246% or 1 in 255 |
| Three of a Kind | 2.11285% or 1 in 47.33 |
| Two Pair | 4.75390% or 1 in 21.04 |
| Jacks or Better | 13.00212% or 1 in 7.69 |
Note: Hand odds are approximate and can vary by ruleset and whether odds are calculated before or after the draw.
How Paytables Determine Video Poker Odds
Paytables highlight video poker payouts for recognized paying hands, such as Flushes, Straights, and Royals. A single modification to the payout, e.g., changing Full House from 9 to 8 coins, can affect RTP, reducing it by over 1% at times.
Additionally, paytables can divide video poker games into full-pay and short-pay versions.
Full-Pay vs Short-Pay: What It Means
A full-pay table offers the highest possible RTP for that game variant. For instance, in Jacks or Better (JoB), the full-pay (or 9/6) table provides a 9-coin payout for a Full House, a 6-coin payout for a Flush, and an RTP of about 99.54% under perfect strategy.
Conversely, a Short-Pay table reduces payouts on one or more hands, often by just 1 or 2 coins. Changing that 9/6 structure to 9/5, for example, sounds tiny, but it increases the house edge and slashes the RTP to 98.45%, which affects Jacks or Better odds.
Effect of RTP & House Edge on Video Poker Odds
RTP
The video poker RTP is the percentage of the bet amount returned to the player over time, under optimal play. For example, in full-pay JoB (99.54% RTP), using the Jacks or Better strategy chart, every $100 you wager will theoretically return $99.54 in the long term.
Approximate returns for common full-pay versions are:
Check out the full video poker paytable guide for more details.
House Edge
House edge in video poker games is the casino’s built-in advantage. For example, if a game’s RTP is 99.54%, the house edge is 0.46% over the long term.
Role of Strategy in Boosting Odds
One perfect hold decision (instead of a near-perfect hold) can be worth 0.2-1.5 credits per hand. These small credits can add up fast over 800 hands per hour. That’s the advantage of optimal play. And the basic video poker strategy charts provide exactly that.
How Strategy Affects Video Poker Odds
Video poker odds are not fixed. Unlike traditional slots, your decisions on which cards to hold and discard directly affect the game’s return. Using the correct strategy can significantly improve your odds and bring the game’s RTP much closer to its theoretical maximum.
Depending on the variant and paytable, optimal strategy can improve returns by several percentage points compared to random play.
Jacks or Better – Basic Strategy Overview
Jacks or Better is one of the most popular video poker games and is known for its simple strategy and low house edge when played correctly.
What to Hold (Priority Order)
- Royal Flush, Straight Flush, or Four of a Kind
- Full House, Flush, or Straight
- Three of a Kind
- Two Pair
- High Pair (Jacks, Queens, Kings, Aces)
- Four cards to a Royal Flush
- Low Pair
- Four cards to a Straight or Flush
When played with optimal strategy on a full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better machine, the RTP can reach approximately 99.54%. Poor strategy, however, can reduce returns to the mid-90% range.
Deuces Wild – Basic Strategy Overview
Deuces Wild uses all four twos as wild cards, which changes hand rankings and strategy significantly compared to Jacks or Better.
What to Hold First
- Four Deuces
- Wild Royal Flush
- Five of a Kind
- Straight Flush
- Three Deuces
- Four cards to a Wild Royal Flush
- Two Deuces
- High pairs (depending on the hand)
Full-pay Deuces Wild games can offer RTPs of 99.73% or higher with perfect play, but incorrect decisions can significantly lower your long-term results.
Strategy Complexity vs RTP
Video Poker Strategy Complexity vs RTP
Why Strategy Charts Matter
Using a video poker strategy chart helps players avoid costly mistakes and consistently make the mathematically correct decision for each hand.
For players focused on improving odds, strategy charts are just as important as choosing the right paytable or betting the maximum number of coins.
Variance Explained: What It Means for Your Bankroll and Session Length
In video poker, variance describes how much results can fluctuate in the short term. Two games can have similar RTP values but feel very different to play, depending on how often wins occur and how large those wins typically are.
Low-variance games tend to produce smaller but more frequent wins, making bankroll swings smoother. High-variance games rely more on rare, high-paying hands, which can lead to longer losing streaks but larger payouts when they hit.
Understanding variance helps players choose a video poker game that matches their bankroll size, risk tolerance, and preferred session length.
Video Poker Odds Across Different Variants
Which video poker game has the best odds if played using optimal strategy? They are:
- 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%): Stable variance (low volatility) and excellent long-term odds for consistent play. Paytable differences are easy to spot.
- Deuces Wild (Not So Ugly) (99.73%): Strong RTP potential, but higher volatility and stricter strategy requirements.
- Full-Pay Aces & Eights (8/5) (99.78%): Bonus payouts increase volatility slightly. Learn more in the Aces & Eights video poker guide.
- 8/5 Bonus Poker (99.17%): Bigger four-of-a-kind payouts, but higher swings than Jacks or Better.
- Joker Poker (Kings+) (100.64%): Can exceed 100% RTP on rare full-pay versions with perfect play, but it’s best for advanced players due to complexity and volatility.
Even with high RTP, variance can cause big short-term swings, so choose a game that matches your bankroll and risk tolerance.
Selecting a Good Video Poker Game
Here are five easy ways to select the best video poker game before playing:
- Check the paytable first. Is it full-pay or short-pay?
- Confirm coin rules (typically 5 coins for maximum payouts).
- Go for full-pay versions whenever possible.
- Maintain optimal play and RTP using strategy charts.
- Avoid Short-pay variants that cut key payouts.
Go Big on Video Poker
Video poker rewards those who understand odds, paytables, strategy, and RTP more than those who don’t. However, while doing your math helps, it doesn’t guarantee outcomes. So, always aim for consistent and enjoyable sessions.
FAQs
What are the odds of winning at video poker?
They vary by variant and paytable, but full-pay machines with optimal strategy offer some of the highest returns of any casino game.
What game has the best odds on video poker?
Jacks or Better offers some of the strongest long-term odds under perfect strategy.
What are the odds on Jacks or Better video poker?
A full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better game returns about 99.54% with perfect play.