The Gambler Fallacy is a belief about how certain events should turn out. It is common among gamblers who play chance-based online casino real money games. These players believe that when an event has occurred more frequently, it is less likely to happen in the future, or vice versa.
A typical example is the tossing of a coin. Some say that if the coin lands on heads multiple times in a row, the subsequent outcome will likely be tails. However, they fail to understand that each toss is independent of the previous outcomes and does not influence future results in any way.
In this casino news, we’ll discuss the birth and probability of this fallacy, the psychology behind it, and some examples.
Psychology of the Gambler Fallacy: Cracking the Code
The Gambler Fallacy is linked to human psychology and probability theory. This concept has two probable aspects.
First, the outcome of future events would likely be the opposite of repetitive occurrences of past events. Second is that, due to too many repetitions of past results, the result of future outcomes would likely be the same. Both, however, are a peculiar misunderstanding of chance or randomness.
In gambling, the randomness mechanics of casino games do not have sequences or patterns. This supports the idea that previous events have no bearing on future outcomes.
A classic example of the Gambler’s Fallacy occurs in games such as roulette. Assuming a player is seated in the casino, or playing various online casino rounds or roulette and has been observant of how the ball has landed 9 consecutive times on an “odd number,” the gamer may assume that the 10th spin would likely be an “even number.”
The conviction may come from a live casino social belief that a streak of odd-number outcomes must be followed by an even-number outcome to “balance” the probabilities. The player decides to bet heavily on an even number, neglecting that each roulette wheel spin works independently. The 10th could still be an odd number, and the player would lose a lot of money.
The belief of reoccurrence also happens if a player is winning or losing. If a player has a winning streak, perhaps in a baccarat game, he might assume that the game is tilted in his favor, forgetting that each round is solely independent and dependent on luck and strategy. This may induce a false thought in the player’s mind that winning the next round is sure, and then he may place a high wager and lose a lot of cash.