Clearing Gaming Uncertainty With the Law of Averages

Clearing Gaming Uncertainty With the Law of Averages

The law of averages plays a crucial role in casino gaming results. Interchangeable with the law of large numbers, it shows repeated activities gradually aligning with expected probabilities over time. However, this concept is often misinterpreted, as “long enough” is not a definite time.

In this casino news, we’ll explain the law of averages/large numbers in casino games with examples.

Law of Averages: The Unsung Hero of the Casino Floor

Whether you’re playing games online or at a brick-and-mortar casino, the law of averages applies similarly. In a roulette game, for instance, there are 37 numbers in a standard European roulette wheel, 18 red and 18 black pockets, and a green zero. This gives players a roughly 48.6% chance of winning either red or black on any given spin (ignoring the green pocket). 

However, as you proceed in the game, you notice the ball landing in red instead of the black pocket you wagered on. The ball will eventually land on black if you do it long enough. But after how many spins? Tens or hundreds? Nevertheless, the law of average will still apply. Even if it takes over a million spins, the results in both live or online casino games will later approach the initial probability rate of 48.6%. 

Similarly, in casino games online that use a standard 52-card deck consisting of 26 red and 26 black cards, the probability of drawing either is 50%. Getting four consecutive black cards means the shuffle has stacked some black cards together. So, the law of averages suggests that each card draw is independent and doesn’t determine the subsequent outcome. Over time, we’ll see more red cards to even out the result. 

Furthermore, although the results of both live and online slots depend on RNGs, the law of averages states that the results tend to even out over many spins. Even if someone wins big or loses often in a short time, over many spins, the machine’s design brings the chances of winning certain amounts closer to what’s expected. Therefore, if a player experiences a string of losses or wins in the short term, the law of averages suggests that their overall outcomes align more closely with the inherent probabilities of online casino games over time. 

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Gambler’s Fallacy and Misconception

The gambler’s fallacy associated with the law of averages is about a player believing that past outcomes of random events, like coin flips or roulette spins, affect future outcomes in their casino games.

Let’s take the toss of a coin as an example. Both heads and tails have a 50/50 chance of coming out, but the number of times each could appear isn’t 50/50. Just because heads appeared three consecutive times doesn’t mean the following outcome would be tails. Wishfully, players often think it’s only fair that the coin flips equally, but it doesn’t happen most often. This is because each coin flip is independent, and past flips don’t change the odds of future ones. It’s like thinking a virtual roulette wheel is “due” to land on red after several black spins. 

The concept was derived from the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913. Many players believed that after 15 consecutive black spins, the following outcome would be a red. In faith, the majority of them wagered heavy sums on red. However, to their surprise, the spin continued to land on black until after the 26th spin, and they lost many wagers.

That implies that understanding the law of averages is essential to avoid falling prey to such notions. Outcomes will balance over time, but each event still depends on randomness. So, if you have set your heart on big wins, kindly do a recheck. But if you eventually get it, we suggest you use a gambling winnings tax calculator to verify if there are any additional taxes on your casino earnings.

Probabilities… Bet by Bet

The law of averages states that an expected outcome becomes achievable over many tries. However, due to the randomness mechanism of online casino real money games, it should not be mistaken for a strategy. It also doesn’t state how long it will take for the expected outcome to be actualized; it only asserts that it will happen. We suggest you learn to dominate your favorite games through the smart use of casino guides and other learning content.

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